
Binary Classification for Next-Day Gold Price Movements Using Machine Learning
This study explores next-day gold price direction prediction using supervised machine learning. Daily Indonesian gold price data are transformed into features such as log returns, moving-average ratios, and short-term volatility, then classified using Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine. Among the evaluated models, Logistic Regression achieved the strongest overall performance, with an F1-score of 0.737 and accuracy of 58.3%, showing the potential of engineered financial features for short-term directional forecasting.

